The release of the 2021 regional population estimates has been highly anticipated. This is because it shows a full twelve months of COVID-19 influenced population trends, particularly the closure of the international border, at a local level. Previous data released by the ABS, such as changes in internal migration patterns have provided some clues as to what the data will show. Read on to find out more.
LGAs with strong growth
The regional estimates are released for a range of geographies, but this blog focuses on local government areas (LGAs). The table below shows the LGAs with the highest volume and percentage growth in 2020-21.
The LGAs with the highest volume of growth were located in Queensland, NSW and Victoria. The list was headed by the Gold Coast, with an additional 8,400 residents in 2020-21. This was followed by the Sunshine Coast (7,150) and Moreton Bay (7,070). Regardless, the volume of growth recorded on the Gold Coast was the lowest this century, and corresponded to a 1.3% increase. Gains from internal migration in 2020-21 were similar to the previous year, but net overseas migration (NOM) was negative (-1,620) compared to a gain of 4,970 in 2019-20.
It might surprise people to learn that the City of Brisbane actually recorded a slight decline in population (-158 people). In terms of population size, this is the largest LGA in Australia. Therefore, it regularly features on the list of the LGAs with the highest volume of growth. However, a net loss of almost 9,000 persons through overseas migration was the primary driver behind the decline, and compares to a gain of 10,840 the previous year.
Camden, located in outer south-western Sydney, featured on both lists in 2020-21. The LGA grew by more than 6,700 people, and recorded the strongest percentage growth (6.2%) in the country. Overseas migration is less of a driver of growth in this area, instead, internal migration and natural increase are more important. There are a number of greenfield development fronts that cater to young couples and families, and these new residents tend to come from other parts of Sydney. Camden has recorded very strong growth since 2016 (upwards of 6,000 people per annum) and this growth is likely to continue for some time.
Local population trends in Victoria
No state or territory was impacted more by COVID-19 than Victoria. Population trends have taken a complete U-turn in the last two years. Victoria has gone from being the fastest growing state, to one recording population decline. This has been sharply felt in Melbourne, which has experienced COVID-19 related lockdowns and related impacts on employment, enjoyment and movement. In 2020-21, the population of Greater Melbourne declined by 60,500 people (-1.2%), and now stands at 5.1 million. This was driven by negative migration, both from overseas and within Australia.
The map below shows the population growth rate by LGA for 2020-21. The bluish shades indicate LGAs that recorded an increase in population in 2020-21, whereas green and grey shades indicate population decline.
Peri-urban areas
The strongest growth rates were recorded in peri-urban LGAs around Melbourne, including Greater Geelong and Surf Coast. The latter recorded the strongest growth rate in Victoria, at 4.4% for the year, representing growth of around 1,500 people. Internal migration explains much of the growth in Surf Coast, with housing opportunities on new estates in Torquay, Jan Juc and Winchelsea. Since 2016-17, gains from internal migration have increased steadily, reaching 1,360 in 2020-21.Greater Geelong recorded the highest volume of growth in regional Victoria, adding a further 4,730 residents in 2020-21. This represented a growth rate of 1.8%, well above the national average. The volume and rate of growth is lower than the previous two years, due to negative NOM. The recorded stronger growth in recent years is due to new housing estates in suburbs such as Armstrong Creek, as well as relatively affordable housing across the metropolitan area. In general, house prices in Geelong are around 30% lower than metropolitan Melbourne. Good transport links, a diversifying economy and the move to working from home explain much of the recent growth surge in Greater Geelong.
Peri-urban areas around Melbourne were generally growing strongly prior to COVID. We know that migration out of Melbourne has been increasing for some years, and peri-urban areas are an important destination for those seeking a more rural lifestyle and, in some areas, more affordable housing. The Shires of Mitchell, Bass Coast and Baw Baw grew by more than 3% in 2020-21, continuing the strong growth trend recorded in recent years.
Melbourne
As mentioned above, the population of Greater Melbourne declined by more than 60,000 in 2020-21 and the impacts were felt across the metropolitan area. Several LGAs declined in population by more than 3%, headed by the City of Melbourne (-7.5%, or -13,770 people). Overseas migration has been an important driver of change here, due to its popularity with international students and backpackers. The closure of the international border has impacted these housing markets. For example, in 2018-19, the City of Melbourne recorded NOM of 8,630, declining to 5,230 in 2019-20 (partially impacted by international border closure) and -13,580 in 2020-21 (fully impacted by international border closure). This trend should turn around now that international students are returning to Australia, but at this stage it's difficult to estimate the numbers for LGAs.
Inner city LGAs such as Port Phillip and Stonnington, also recorded a sharp decline in population, as did Monash (due to the location of the university), Brimbank and Greater Dandenong. Overall, 24 of the 31 LGAs in Greater Melbourne recorded a decline in population, compared to just two in 2019-20.
Stronger population growth continues on Melbourne's fringe, headed by Melton (3.9%, 6,710 people) and Wyndham (2.3%, 6,490 people). Natural increase and internal migration are more important drivers of population change in these areas, due to their popularity with young couples and families.
Western Victoria
Not all parts of regional Victoria recorded population growth in 2020-21. Population decline has long been a feature across most of western Victoria and the last year has been no exception. The reasons are well documented, and primarily relate to an older population, as well as out-migration of young people. Yarriambiack recorded population decline of -2.1%, the highest rate this century. Although this amounted to just 136 people, the losses over many years are cumulative and have major impacts on service provision and the economy. Since 2001, the population of Yarriambiack has declined by more than 20%, primarily due to natural decrease and out-migration. The 2021 population is 6,450.
Other LGAs in western Victoria to record population loss include Swan Hill (-1.8%), West Wimmera (1.5%) and Mildura (-1.2%). Mildura's result was the first time the LGA has recorded a decline in population since 1991, and shows the impact of the international border closure on the availability of overseas workers for fruit picking and other rural industries.
Summary
In 2020-21, the LGA with the highest volume of growth was Gold Coast, followed by Sunshine Coast and Moreton Bay. All of these LGAs are located in South East Queensland. However, Camden, located in Sydney's outer southwest, recorded the highest percentage growth (6.2%). This is a continuation of strong growth in recent years driven by internal migration and natural increase.
In contrast to recent years, many LGAs in metropolitan Melbourne declined in population, particularly the City of Melbourne (-7.5%). However LGAs on the fringe continued to record stronger growth. The LGAs in Victoria was the strongest growth rates were located in peri-urban areas around Melbourne, continuing recent trends. The highest rate recorded was Surf Coast (4.4%). However most LGAs in western Victoria declined in population, another continuation of long standing demographic trends associated with an ageing population and out-migration.
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